Team Previews and Ladder Prediction
How The Back Pocket thinks your team will go in the 2025 AFL season
It seems the done thing before every season is to rate teams and make bold calls, but I also really want to do this for transparency so that either I can brag or you can all make fun of me at seasons’ end.
I think 2025 will be an interesting year, mostly because 2024 was such a close season -Grand Final result aside - with teams as far down as 14th being just two games out of finals, and all bar the bottom three sides finishing with a percentage better than 90%.
Outside of the bottom four (and maybe St Kilda) every team looked like making finals at least once during the second half of the season, but at the same time only three or four teams ever looked good enough to win it - and for a long time Brisbane wasn’t one of those teams.
So I’m going to run through these in reverse order of what I think the ladder will be, because that makes the most sense structurally (as of time of publishing I have had to do three rewrites as injury news has come in).
So to start us off is lucky last, and a surprise to nobody:
18. Richmond
Even the most bullish and excited Richmond supporter would probably have their highest hopes for the Tigers this year to be simply not finishing bottom four. Hell, most would be happy not to finish bottom.
There is clearly still some top-end talent there with Taranto, Hopper, Balta and Nankervis, but the loss of Baker, Bolton, Rioli and Graham to other clubs in addition to Martin and Grimes to retirement sees a lot of experience and talent out the door.
The fact that Richmond elected to take everything to the draft and not bring in any established talent shows that their eyes are most certainly on a rebuild, and with six Top 25 draft picks this year and North Melbourne’s first-round draft pick already in-hand, they would hope they are well on the way to building a solid foundation.
IN:
Sam Lalor (Pick 1), Josh Smillie (Pick 7), Taj Hotton (Pick 12), Jonty Faull (Pick 14), Luke Trainor (Pick 21), Harry Armstrong (Pick 23), Thomas Sims (Pick 28), Jasper Alger (Pick 58)
OUT:
Jack Graham (Free Agent - West Coast), Liam Baker (Trade - West Coast), Shai Bolton (Trade - Fremantle), Daniel Rioli (Trade - Gold Coast)
Matthew Coulthard (Delisted), Noah Cumberland (Delisted), Dylan Grimes (Retired), Dustin Martin (Retired), Marlion Pickett (Retired), Sam Naismith (Retired),
Best case scenario: A finish between 13th - 16th and promising signs from Lalor, Smillie & co.
Worst case scenario: Expectations are rock bottom, so the only worst case scenario would be losing another big name in the trade period.
17. North Melbourne
We arrive at the second team on the list, and we’re already at the first team I’m unsure about from a ladder perspective. I think there is a lot of promise with their young core with Sheezel, Wardlaw and LDU looking like a genuine midfield, and McKercher looking like a star of the future, but whether this can translate to winning the midfield battle remains unknown.
Comben was a great find last year, but the backline still looks like North Melbourne’s weakest point after finishing as the easiest team to score against last season, averaging a touch over a goal a game more scored against them than the wooden spooners in Richmond.
It was also interesting to see the experience that North Melbourne brought in to the side, with Daniel, Darling and Parker all joining the ranks - the latter two well into their 30s. Melbourne and Hawthorn both successfully integrated older players into their rebuilds, so it will be interesting to see if North can do the same.
To make things worse for North Melbourne, George Wardlaw has torn a hamstring since I wrote the above praise for his potential, and is set to miss up to six weeks of the season proper and the rest of the pre-season.
IN:
Caleb Daniel (Trade - Western Bulldogs), Jack Darling (Trade - West Coast), Jacob Konstanty (Trade - Sydney), Luke Parker (Trade - Sydney)
Finn O'Sullivan (Pick 2), Matt Whitlock (Pick 27), Luke Urquhart (Pick 57), River Stevens (Pick 67 - Father-Son)
OUT:
Blake Drury (Delisted), Hamish Free (Delisted), Hugh Greenwood (Retired), Charlie Lazzaro (Delisted), Bigoa Nyuon (Delisted), Tyler Sellers (Delisted), Liam Shiels (Retired), Jaidyn Stephenson (Retired), Curtis Taylor (Delisted), Tarryn Thomas (Delisted)
Best case scenario: The improvement from the young core continues, the defence holds up, and North manage to bunnyhop their way to 14th or better, lowering the value of their future first round pick.
Worst case scenario: No improvement from the young core, recruits are well past their best and the number one pick goes to Richmond.
16. West Coast Eagles
It has been a dark few years for Eagles fans, though it is hard to feel to sympathetic for a side with four flags in their short history, and who have made finals in 24 out of 34 years in the AFL era - their most recent flag coming in 2018 - but it is a horror period for the club.
There was a spark last year though, in the form of a young bull in the Eagles midfield. Before there was Sam Konstas on Boxing Day, there was Harley Reid in the 58th Western Derby (and again against Melbourne in R10). If there has ever been a player to build around, this is it.
West Coast would also be quietly pleased with the additions of Jack Graham and Liam Baker - as well as top local draft pick Bo Allan - but would be less excited at the loss of Tom Barrass. With new names in the midfield and hopefully some more games into Allen and Hewett, West Coast could show signs of a real rebuild this year.
That said, it is hard to see them bridging the serious gap between the bottom three and the next chasing cluster, but it would be great to see them win seven or eight games in 2024
IN:
Jack Graham (Free Agent - Richmond), Liam Baker (Trade - Richmond), Matt Owies (Trade - Carlton),
Bo Allan (Pick 16), Jobe Shanahan (Pick 30), Tom Gross (Pick 46), Luca Greggo (Pick 48), Hamish Davis (Pick 65), Malakai Champion (Category B Rookie)
OUT:
Tom Barrass (Trade - Hawthorn), Jack Darling (Trade - North Melbourne)
Jordyn Baker (Delisted), Coby Burgiel (Delisted), Jai Culley (Delisted), Luke Edwards (Delisted), Andrew Gaff (Retired), Jamaine Jones (Delisted), Josh Rotham (Delisted), Zane Trew (Delisted), Alex Witherden (Delisted)
Best case scenario: Allen remains fully fit, Allan is as good as the rumours suggested, and Reid elevates his game to another level, seeing West Coast win 10 games.
Worst case scenario: Stagnation. They can’t have a much worse year, but nothing would be more disheartening than a lack of improvement.
15. St Kilda
St Kilda are always a mystery to me, and for another year I am unsure if I am being dismissive of what should be a talented and improving young group, or if I have hit the nail on the head with them (as we did last early last year after the win against Collingwood had people very bullish).
Since sacking Ratten (shortly after renewing his contract) Lyon’s record is now worse than Ratten’s was. The Saints had a dramatic drop off last season, only playing high quality football against Essendon, Geelong and Carlton once the season was done and dusted.
The loss of Josh Battle will hurt them structurally, and Macrae might paper over some cracks but is unlikely to move the needle too far. The exciting young group of Henry, Wanganeen-Milera, Phillipou, Owens and Windhager is where all of the hope rests, alongside the reliable veterans in Sinclair, Marshall and Steele.
But now Phillipou is set to miss the start of the season with stress fractures in his right femur, and Henry and Marshall are facing interrupted pre-seasons and are racing the clock to be fit for Round One with knee and pelvis injuries respectively. To add insult to injury (or injuries), important key defender Dougal Howard has dislocated his shoulder and is nervously awaiting scans is set to go in for surgery and will miss at least the first six rounds, further amplifying St Kilda’s defensive woes after the departure of Josh Battle.
IN:
Jack Macrae (Trade - Western Bulldogs), Jack Carroll (DFA - Carlton), Harry Boyd (SSP),
Tobie Travaglia (Pick 8), Alix Tauru (Pick 10), James Barrat (Pick 32), Hugh Boxshall (Pick 45), Alex Dodson (Pick 53), Patrick Said (Pick 60), Eamonn Armstrong (Category B Rookie)
OUT:
Tom Campbell (Free Agent - Melbourne), Josh Battle (Free Agent - Hawthorn), Tim Membrey (DFA - Collingwood)
Matthew Allison (Delisted), Riley Bonner (Delisted), Brad Crouch (Retired), Jack Hayes (Delisted), Olli Hotton (Delisted), Ben Paton (Delisted), Seb Ross (Delisted), James Van Es (Delisted)
Best case scenario: The Saints recapture the spark they harnessed in 2023 and late in 2024, and jump back up the ladder into the bottom half of the eight.
Worst case scenario: Another year in the abyss with generational talents like Sinclair, Wilkie, Steele and Marshall fast approaching 30.
14. Essendon
Last year really was a year of highs and lows for Essendon - in that order, as they flew dangerously close to the sun, and the round second at the halfway point of the year, only to tumble down to 11th, losing four of their last five games.
The problem for Essendon here wasn’t really form, but more the fixture lulling them into a false sense of security, playing the majority of the easier teams earlier in the season before coming home with a strong headwind.
There is some young talent coming through for Essendon, but having to play Sydney, Geelong, the Western Bulldogs and Carlton twice each - including in three of their last four games - it’s hard to see them improving on last year’s 11 wins.
There is a lot of excitement around Isaac Kako, and Bombers fans should expect big things from Caddy, Perkins, Martin and Durham, but it’s just like their coach said before last year began; they have a list profile similar to that of a rebuilding club, and despite early season “sugar hits,” in past seasons, they have finished about where they were expected to.
Another injury to team barometer and one of the club’s on-field leaders in Jordan Ridley has once again come at an inopportune time, and he will be racing against to clock to get back as early as possible to improve Essendon’s chances of making finals.
IN:
Jaxon Prior (SSP - Brisbane),
Isaac Kako (Pick 13 - Academy), Kayle Gerreyn (Pick 37), Angus Clarke (Pick 39)Rhys Unwin (Pick 61), Zak Johnson (Pick 70), Archer Day-Wicks (Rookie Draft), Jayden Nguyen (Category B Rookie)
OUT:
Jake Stringer (Trade - GWS Giants)
Kaine Baldwin (Delisted), Jayden Davey (Delisted), Dyson Heppell (Retired), Nick Hind (Delisted), Jaiden Hunter (Delisted), Jake Kelly (Retired), Tex Wanganeen (Delisted), Sam Weideman (Delisted)
Best case scenario: The young up-and-coming stars all fire, the backline makes it work, and Essendon break their finals wins drought.
Worst case scenario: Essendon go backwards instead and find themselves in the bottom four.
13. Gold Coast Suns
The Gold Coast Suns are a wonderful mystery box, once again. The club won 11 games last year, but still failed to beat their club-best finish of 12th spot. Their best (at home) was undeniably good enough to match it with quality opposition, but their worst (away from home) was well off the mark, leaving them with a middling 11-12 ledger.
But there is optimism around the Suns. Damien Hardwick has now had a full year with the group, only Lukosius of their best 22 has left the club this year, and they managed a marquee signing in the form of Daniel Rioli.
Fans of Gold Coast Suns Flag Survivor will note that of the 48 players at the Suns when Dimma arrived and announced that they already had 80% of their first premierships, only 30 remain, leaving just 12 players who can depart before the needle has moved too far the other direction.
Sure, there is talent at the Suns, but we say that every year. Away from home, this Suns team was completely toothless last season and no matter how kind of a draw they are given, clearly a culture shift is needed to get them to their first finals berth.
IN:
Elliott Himmelberg (Free Agent - Adelaide), John Noble (Trade - Collingwood), Daniel Rioli (Trade - Richmond)
Leo Lombard (Pick 9 - Academy), Cooper Bell (Pick 49), Asher Eastham (Rookie Draft), Max Knobel (Rookie Draft), Zak Evans (Category B Rookie), Lachlan Gulbin (Category B Rookie)
OUT:
Rory Atkins (Trade - Port Adelaide), Jack Lukosius (Trade - Port Adelaide),
Sandy Brock (Delisted), Levi Casboult (Retired), Sam Day (Delisted), Brandon Ellis (Retired), Oskar Faulkhead (Delisted), Darcy Macpherson (Delisted), Jack Mahony (Delisted), Hewago Oea (Delisted), Will Rowlands (Delisted), James Tsitas (Delisted)
Best case scenario: Dimma really is the chosen one, and he guides them to their first finals berth and win.
Worst case scenario: The Suns find themselves exactly where they have for the entire existence of their club - in the bottom six. Even worse if Rowell heads back to Victoria.
12. Port Adelaide
Port Adelaide were a mixed bag by any definition last season. After a historic drubbing at home at the hands of Brisbane, Power fans were booing Ken Hinkley and demanding his sacking, only for the team to storm home to second on the ladder. The joy of this was short-lived, losing comprehensively to Geelong in a home Qualifying Final, scraping over the line against Hawthorn by quite literally an inch, and getting calmly brushed aside by Sydney in the Preliminary Final.
It was all too familiar for Power fans, who have seen this side under Ken Hinkley spend a couple of years in finals and a couple of years out, making a prelim every three or four years, only to end up back at square one. Their most damaging player in Dan Houston departed to Collingwood but Crippa, Carr and Ken appear to be trying to rebuild him in the aggregate by bringing in Rory Atkins and Joe Richards, alongside prize recruit Jack Lukosius. The midfield of Horne-Francis, Rozee and Butters is imposing, but was picked apart by teams with great structure.
But will it be enough to bridge the gap? When faced with the best sides when it mattered, Port Adelaide found themselves well behind the eight ball and their backline provides more questions than answers. It is hard to sack a man who took his team to second on the ladder and made it to the penultimate week in September, but with no Grand Final appearances to show for it (or even close prelims), more doubt continues to grow around whether Ken really is the man to take them to the promised land.
IN:
Rory Atkins (Trade - Gold Coast), Jack Lukosius (Trade - Gold Coast), Joe Richards (Trade - Collingwood)
Joe Berry (Pick 15), Jack Whitlock (Pick 33), Christian Moraes (Pick 38), Tom Cochrane (Rookie Draft), Benny Barrett (Category B Rookie), Jacob Moss (Category B Rookie),
OUT:
Dan Houston (Trade - Collingwood), Quinton Narkle (DFA - Fremantle)
Tom Clurey (Delisted), Charlie Dixon (Retired), Francis Evans (Delisted), Kyle Marshall (Delisted), Tom McCallum (Delisted), Trent McKenzie (Retired), Tom Scully (Delisted)
Best case scenario: Another home Qualifying Final, another Prelim, maybe win the whole thing.
Worst case scenario: A slide down the ladder to anywhere below 10th, and another wasted year under Ken Hinkley.
11. Melbourne
Melbourne are a mystery wrapped in an enigma tied up in a riddle for me in 2025. Their best was more than good enough in 2024 before Petracca got injured and everything started going horribly wrong.
In the drama of everything that happened last year, it’s easy to forget that Melbourne returned home from a two-week-two-win trip in Adelaide to beat Geelong in a nail biter, to sit just one game off top spot after eight rounds. Just two years ago this same Melbourne team were kicking themselves at their end of year function, because they knew their best was as good as anyone’s.
So what has changed then, that so many of us see them in a different light? The only departure is Alex Neal-Bullen, who despite being a heart and soul player, isn’t the biggest name they could have most. They have added two more first round picks to an exciting going squad, and still have Gawn, Petracca, Oliver, Lever, May and Pickett on their list.
Despite all this, it’s impossible to shake the feeling that too much went wrong last year, both on the field and behind closed doors. If any of the magic remains, it will need to be dug out from underneath considerable baggage and debris from the implosion of last season. They definitely CAN do it, but whether it’s likely they will or not is a different story.
IN:
Tom Campbell (Free Agent - St Kilda), Harry Sharp (Trade - Brisbane)
Harvey Langford (Pick 6), Xavier Lindsay (Pick 11), Aidan Johnson (Pick 68), Ricky Mentha jnr (Category B Rookie)
OUT:
Alex Neal-Bullen (Trade - Adelaide)
Angus Brayshaw (Retired), Ben Brown (Retired), Kyah Farris-White (Delisted), Lachie Hunter (Retired), Josh Schache (Delisted), Joel Smith (Delisted), Adam Tomlinson (Delisted)
Best case scenario: Clayton Oliver returns to his best alongside a fully fit Petracca and Gawn, and Melbourne finish top four (genuinely possible).
Worst case scenario: Oliver continues to provide middling results, and Petracca returns a shadow of himself.
10. Hawthorn
Despite Hawthorn not making it any further than a Semi-Final (which was miraculous considering they started the season 0-5), 2024 was the year of Hok-Ball. There was an unknown chaos that drove Hawthorn to an early finals berth last year, driven by high-energy youngsters and a few senior players at the top of their game. Whilst it fell short against the very best sides, it was exciting to watch and won them more games than it lost.
But can they carry that energy and form into the new year? I wrote about my doubts over their legitimacy and the yo-yo effect late last year, as their loss to Port Adelaide - a team proven to be well behind the pack - showed they were a few steps off, and a late season belting at the hands of Geelong showed they still couldn’t match it with the bigger teams.
That said, their backline was arguably the best in the AFL last year - particularly in the back half of the season - and they have added Josh Battle and Tom Barrass. Their midfielders are fast and exciting, and they have a number of players who can play all over the ground.
If Hawthorn find themselves 4-2 after six games - against Sydney, Essendon, Carlton, GWS, Port Adelaide and Geelong, I will be convinced they are the real deal. Until then, I have them just missing out this year with a trickier draw.
IN:
Josh Battle (Free Agent - St Kilda), Tom Barrass (Trade - West Coast)
Noah Mraz (Pick 35), Cody Anderson (Pick 64 - Academy), Matt Hill (Category B Rookie), Jaime Uhr-Henry (Category B Rookie)
OUT:
Josh Bennetts (Delisted), Denver Grainger-Barras (Delisted), Cooper Stephens (Delisted), Jack O'Sullivan (Delisted), Ethan Phillips (Delisted), Clay Tucker (Delisted), Chad Wingard (Retired)
Best case scenario: They continue their form from late last season, and storm into the top four.
Worst case scenario: A big return to the mean sees them drop into the bottom six.
9. Collingwood
Collingwood are two years out from a flag, and are have well and truly taken the retirement home label from Geelong. The oldest team in the club added more old than young players to their best 22, and saw none of their veterans retire. It really is an all or nothing play in 2025.
Injuries aside, Collingwood’s best was more than good enough in 2024 - helped by having a generational talent on the list in Nick Daicos, whose brother is also putting together a hell of a resume. The problem is that their best players are all the wrong side of 25 - and in many cases the wrong side of 30 - and the youth appears to be Daicos or bust.
The addition of Houston and Perryman may just give them the run they need from the back half of the ground, and Membrey provides a much needed marking target up forward. But will it be enough? Despite having them 9th, I think you would be very foolish to write them off, and they’ll likely have a much softer draw this year than last.
IN:
Harry Perryman (Free Agent - GWS Giants), Dan Houston (Trade - Port Adelaide), Tim Membrey (DFA - St Kilda)
Joel Cochran (Pick 47), Charlie West (Pick 50), Will Hayes (Pick 56)
OUT:
John Noble (Trade - Gold Coast), Joe Richards (Trade - Port Adelaide)
Aiden Begg (Delisted), Jack Bytel (Delisted), Josh Carmichael (Retired), Josh Eyre (Delisted), Nathan Kreuger (Delisted), Nathan Murphy (Retired),
Best case scenario: Everyone stays on the park, and a Brownlow season from Daicos guides them to a second flag.
Worst case scenario: Father Time catches up with their veterans, and their depth isn’t enough to keep them in touch with the best sides.
8. Adelaide Crows
The first team I have predicted to make finals, and it’s our first big climber. Adelaide got off to a horror start, losing to Gold Coast away (where they were near-unbeatable last year) followed by losses to very strong Geelong and Fremantle sides at home. The 0-3 gap was always too much ground to make up.
But despite that, they showed some seriously impressive signs and the real issue for 2025 is going to be consistency. They beat a full strength Carlton side at Marvel to get off the mark, drew with Brisbane before getting within two goals of them later in the year, had losses to Geelong by just one and three goals, a controversial one goal loss to Collingwood and impressive wins over GWS and the Bulldogs.
But mixed in with that was a loss to an historically poor and injury decimated Richmond team, twice being completely swept aside by Sydney and an end of season scoreline of 8-14 and a bottom four finish. They weren’t helped by injuries and were a far better side when Rankine (15 games) and Thilthorpe (7 games) were on the park.
The backline seems to have well and truly come together in the absence of Tom Doedee, with Worrell, Hinge and Keane all putting together very impressive seasons, and Max Michalanney - son of Norwood Great Jim Michalanney - having a coming of age season, particularly in the back half.
There are also glimpses of life after Tex, with the Thilthorpe-Fogarty pairing looking incredibly intimidating, overpowering the Bulldogs and almost taking the game from Geelong. If the midfield mix works (with a lot of help from Rachele and Rankine), the backline continues to grow together, and Thilthorpe and Fogarty can play 18 games each; the sky is the limit for this Crows team.
IN:
Isaac Cumming (Free Agent - GWS Giants), Alex Neal-Bullen (Trade - Melbourne), James Peatling (Trade - GWS Giants)
Sid Draper (Pick 4), Tyler Welsh (Pick 59 - Father-Son)
OUT:
Elliott Himmelberg (Free Agent - Gold Coast)
Lachlan Gollant (Delisted), Will Hamill (Delisted), Ned McHenry (Delisted), Patrick Parnell (Delisted), Rory Sloane (Retired)
Best case scenario: They make good on the promise of their best games and late-season form from last year, and surge to an unlikely top-four finish.
Worst case scenario: Another year of inconsistency and frustrating results under Matthew Nicks, and the addition of Cumming and Neal-Bullen doesn’t gel with the midfield mix.
7. GWS Giants
The AFL’s greatest tease; The Greater Western Sydney Giants. Ever since they started performing consistently, GWS don’t spend more than a year or two out of the conversation for finals and premierships. They draft extraordinarily well, and seem to have a consistent mix of young talent and experienced veterans that contend every year.
But the elephant in the room - if you care about stats and data - is the GWS Expected Score. GWS rocketed their way to a top-four finish on some remarkably close games with some ridiculously accurate goalkicking - winning several games where they were a long way back on expected score - only to falter in finals, losing two games they seemingly had in the bag by less than a kick, thanks to their opposition kicking as freakishly straight as them.
Most ratings models had GWS anywhere from the 7th to 10th best team in the competition last year, and a straight sets exit against the two eventual grand finalists felt like an accurate representation of where this team sat. They lose Cumming, Perryman and Peatling, but if history has shown us anything GWS will have someone ready to come in and cover those cracks.
Three top 25 draft picks, a midfield that includes Tom Green, Josh Kelly and Stephen Coniglio, one of the best backlines in the competition boasting both Sam Taylor and Jack Buckley, and a forwardline featuring breakout Coleman Medallist Jesse Hogan and the Giants enigmatic pantomime villain captain Toby Greene alongside his protege and the tragic almost-hero of last year’s finals campaign Brent Daniels.
There is more than enough talent in this Orange Team to go again, now with two years of growth under the enormous-bicepped wundercoach Adam Kingsley. They will be out to make amends for the heartbreak of 2024, but will it be enough to drive them to the ultimate success and a maiden flag?
IN:
Jake Stringer (Trade - Essendon)
Oliver Hannaford (Pick 18), Harry Oliver (Pick 19), Cody Angove (Pick 24), Jack Ough (Pick 36), Logan Smith (Pick 71 - Academy), Josaia Delana (Category B Rookie),
OUT:
Isaac Cumming (Free Agent - Adelaide), Nick Haynes (Free Agent - Carlton), Harry Perryman (Free Agent - Collingwood), James Peatling (Trade - Adelaide)
Cooper Hamilton (Delisted), Adam Kennedy (Retired), Braydon Preuss (Delisted)
Best case scenario: Another top-four finish, this time with close wins rather than close losses, and a chance to make amends for both 2024 and 2019.
Worst case scenario: The loss of depth hurts them more than expected, and the Giants slip down to where they were rated statistically for most of last year - just short of September.
6. Carlton
Carlton would have to be one of the most divisive teams this year when it comes to where people expect them to finish. Some have them finishing top four or even winning the flag, while just as many have them missing finals altogether. After last year’s up and down season, it’s understandable because we saw both versions of Carlton - sometimes from week to week.
Truth be told, the main issue for Carlton will be keeping all of their players on the park. It wasn’t necessarily the number or severity of injuries they suffered (though that didn’t help), but the frequency with which they occurred, leaving them unable to gain momentum with a consistent mix in any part of the ground.
Already before this season has started Nic Newman is set to miss the entire year with a ruptured patella tendon and Sam Walsh is experiencing another interrupted pre-season.
If they are able to get full seasons out of the likes of De Koning, Cerra, Saad, Walsh, Docherty and co, Carlton have to be expected to finish in the top third of the ladder. In 2024 their best was scintillating, with wins over Brisbane and Geelong a snapshot of the best they have to offer. Armed with a list who have now experienced two years of finals in a row, and top 3 pick Jagga Smith courtesy of a complicated trade with West Coast, the sky’s the limit for this Blues side.
IN:
Nick Haynes (Free Agent - GWS Giants)
Jagga Smith (Pick 3), Harry O'Farrell (Pick 40), Ben Camporeale (Pick 43 - Father-Son), Lucas Camporeale (Pick 54 - Father-Son), Harry Charleson (Rookie Draft), Matt Duffy (Category B Rookie)
OUT:
Matt Kennedy (Trade - Western Bulldogs), Matt Owies (Trade - West Coast), Jack Caroll (DFA - St Kilda), Jack Martin (DFA - Geelong),
Domanic Akuei (Delisted), Matt Carroll (Delisted), David Cuningham (Delisted), Sam Durdin (Delisted), Caleb Marchbank (Delisted), Alex Mirkov (Delisted),
Best case scenario: An uninterrupted season sees Carlton play at their best more often, and they secure a top two finish and a chance to break the second longest active premiership drought.
Worst case scenario: Another year of injury troubles see Carlton play hit and miss football, dropping down to the cluster of teams just outside the top eight.
5. Fremantle
Fremantle had the season in the palm of their hand last year, and many fans had a right to believe that they were on their way to a maiden premiership come September’s end. But alas, Flagmantle was not to be, as Fremantle dropped five of their last eight games to drop from third to tenth, missing finals altogether.
Losses to fellow top-four aspirants Geelong, GWS and Port put an end to Fremantle’s season, but it was the losses to Essendon and West Coast they would have been most disappointed with. Derbies are a different beast, but Fremantle should never have been outplayed they way they were, and losing to Essendon thanks to a heavily telegraphed centre bounce clearance was disheartening for a side that so recently was riding the high of beating the Goliath of Sydney at home.
On paper, Fremantle have all lines covered - particularly now they have added Shai Bolton. Their age profile is great, their midfield is strong, they have two top-ten rucks, and a forwardline that is now capable of kicking a winning score. On list alone there is no reason that Fremantle shouldn’t go into this season with the belief they are the best team in the competition.
But there is a history with Fremantle and not being able to make good on their promises, and last year plenty of questions were raised around the ability of Longmuir to adapt when he comes up against a well laid plans to blanket Fremantle’s strengths. The way Geelong clinically shut down all of Fremantle’s weapons at home would have been cause for great concern.
But as Alfred once told a young Bruce Wayne, we fall so that we can learn to pick ourselves back up, and Fremantle might well be a much better side from all the hard lessons and heartache of the last eight rounds of last season.
IN:
Shai Bolton (Trade - Richmond), Quinton Narkle (SSP – Port Adelaide),
Murphy Reid (Pick 17), Charlie Nicholls (Pick 34), Jaren Carr (Pick 63 - Father-Son), Aiden Riddle (Rookie Draft)
OUT:
Josh Corbett (Retired), Tom Emmett (Delisted), Ethan Hughes (Delisted), Max Knobel (Delisted), Sebit Kuek (Delisted), Ethan Stanley (Delisted), Matt Taberner (Delisted), Conrad Williams (Delisted)
Best case scenario: Shai Bolton is the missing ingredient and Fremantle play to the best of their abilities, finally breaking through for a long awaited premiership.
Worst case scenario: They are unable to recover from the scars of last year and have another middling season, leaving questionmarks over the coaching group.
4. Western Bulldogs
Picking not only a Docklands based team, but the Bulldogs of all teams to finish top four? A bold call, I know, but the Bulldogs were the best team in the competition at times last year, and were their own worst enemy in the Elimination Final and the late season game against Adelaide. I still have faith this list is more than talented enough.
In the back half of last year, when they really got rolling, the Bulldogs completely outclassed Carlton, Sydney, Geelong (in Geelong) and bogey side Melbourne, looking almost unbeatable in a four week stretch, before getting flattened by the bottom-four Adelaide Crows.
This same inconsistency came to the surface in their Elimination Final, where they barely got out of third gear against a plucky Hawthorn side, and were unceremoniously booted out of the finals. Questions around why players were being played out of position were abound, but the answer to that is always “Bevo”.
There is lots of criticism across the league of “Crazy Bevo” tactics, but I feel that it is part of what makes this Dogs team so good. You don’t necessarily see the praise when he gets it right, like turning Ed Richards into a top inside mid or reinventing Rory Lobb as a key defender (though if you’re familiar with our work, we always advocate for trying a tall forward down back before kicking them to the curb).
The Bulldogs have a great list with some quality young talent, and the fun quirk of the best player in the competition running through their midfield. There is no reason the Bulldogs can’t finally break their top-four drought and go all the way for another flag.
IN:
Matt Kennedy (Trade - Carlton)
Cooper Hynes (Pick 20), Lachie Jaques (Pick 29), Josh Dolan (Pick 31), Sam Davidson (Pick 51), Luke Kennedy (Pick 62)
OUT:
Caleb Daniel (Trade - North Melbourne), Jack Macrae (Trade - St Kilda), Bailey Smith (Trade - Geelong)
Dominic Bedendo (Delisted), Charlie Clarke (Delisted), Alex Keath (Retired), Aiden O'Driscoll (Retired), Kelsey Rypstra (Delisted),
Best case scenario: The Bulldogs get their consistency issues sorted out, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan plays 18+ games, and they suffer no injuries to their backline.*
Worst case scenario: Same old Bulldogs, same old Bevo, as they succumb to another middle six finish and spend another off-season in limbo.
* Since time of posting, Liam Jones has already suffered an injury
3. Geelong Cats
Lots of lists leaving Geelong out of their finals predictions all together, but I’m happy to go against the grain on this one. Geelong were ten minutes away from making a grand final last year, lost to the eventual premier in one of the best Preliminary Finals in recent memory and added Bailey Smith to their midfield.
In fact, when making football predictions, predicting that Geelong will play finals has been a pretty safe bet this century. Predicting that they will play in a Preliminary Final is almost as good odds.
Geelong have lost Tom Hawkins, Gary Rohan and Zach Tuohy from their Best 30, all three of whom looked well past their best, couldn’t stay on the park, or both. There were revelations in the form of Lawson Humphries, Shaun Mannagh and Oliver Dempsey, and the coming of age of Max Holmes.
The biggest question mark over Geelong in 2024 was their midfield, and without much star power they managed to be one of the best ranked midfields in the competition. Adding Bailey Smith to that to give Dangerfield more of a rest seems like a magic elixir.
The other secret weapon Geelong have is Chris Scott. A coach who has now taken this list through effectively two on-the-go-rebuilds, bringing in new talent in just high enough numbers each season to replace the ageing veterans and bringing in an established talent every second year or so.
But most importantly he has found gameplans with each group to keep them playing finals in all but two years of his tenure - sometimes having whole new gameplans from week to week to counter teams who match up dangerously against them. There’s a reason he is so feared and respected by his peers.
Geelong would still be stinging from how close they got to another Grand Final last year, and moments they are trying to forget would be playing on replay in some players minds. Already six are gone from Geelong’s premiership side, and it is likely there will be up to ten players in their Best 23 who are hungry to taste premiership glory.
IN:
Bailey Smith (Trade - Western Bulldogs), Jack Martin (DFA - Carlton)
Jay Polkinghorne (Pick 44), Jacob Molier (Pick 52), Lennox Hofmann (Pick 66), Keighton Matofai-Forbes (Pick 69), Cillian Burke (Category B Rookie), Xavier Ivisic (Rookie Draft), Joe Pike (Rookie Draft), Patrick Retschko (Rookie Draft),
OUT:
Phoenix Foster (Delisted), Joe Furphy (Delisted), Mitch Hardie (Delisted), Tom Hawkins (Retired), Emerson Jeka (Delisted), Oscar Murdoch (Delisted), Brandan Parfitt (Delisted), Gary Rohan (Delisted), Zach Tuohy (Retired), James Willis (Delisted)
Best case scenario: They go one better than last season, and Chris Scott drags this seemingly everlasting team to yet another premiership.
Worst case scenario: Time catches up to Geelong and Bailey Smith is not the messiah many are hoping that he is, seeing them slide out of final for the second time in three seasons.
2. Sydney Swans
A lot of people are throwing the baby out with the bath water with Sydney, and I can understand that to some extent. Teams don’t typically back it up after a ten goal grand final loss, and Sydney barely made finals the year after their loss to Geelong in 2022.
On the other hand, I remember the truly incredible football this Sydney team was capable of playing at points in 2024. Outside of Luke Parker, they haven’t lost much, and Heeney, Gulden, Warner and Blakey are all still under 30 years old.
A new coach in the (rather imposing) shape of Dean Cox might mend some of the scars that John Longmire may have had courtesy of two big-stage failures in three years, and this group is just as talented as it was last year.
Sydney clicked into gear after their early bye last year, and for ten weeks they looked unbeatable, turning on Harlem Globetrotter-esque periods of play where they would just blow opponents off the part or close down a five goal deficit in mere minutes. Even in the loss to Fremantle that many pointed to as their undoing there was a sense of inevitability in their comeback as a stray shot on goal saw them fall excruciatingly short.
The last ten minutes of each the second and third terms against Geelong, and the third quarter against Carlton during this spell showed just how lethal they can be. If they can capture any of that essence - often led by Isaac Heeney - they will be hard to beat once more in 2025.
IN:
Jesse Dattoli (Pick 22), Ned Bowman (Pick 26), Riley Bice (Pick 41), Riak Andrew (Pick 55), Blake Leidler (Rookie Draft), Ben Paton (Rookie Draft)
OUT:
Jacob Konstanty (Trade - North Melbourne), Luke Parker (Trade - North Melbourne)
Harry Arnold (Delisted), Jaiden Magor (Delisted), Lachlan McAndrew (Delisted), Sam Reid (Retired), Cooper Vickery (Delisted)
Best case scenario: Cox helps Sydney clear that final hurdle and they go one step further and win it all.
Worst case scenario: They are unable to shake off the scars of 2024, and are a shadow of the team that finished clear on top.
1. Brisbane Lions
In the middle of the year last year - when it looked impossible for Brisbane to finish high enough on the ladder to do any real damage - we had a sales pitch for Chris Fagan to give the board about why to renew his contract and ignore this year’s results:
“Ashcroft 1 will be back. Ashcroft 2 is coming in. Coleman. Doedee. Gardiner. McCarthy,”
Without these weapons in their arsenal (with the exception of Will Ashcroft, who came back early from an ACL injury to freakishly dominate the finals and win a Norm Smith Medal), Brisbane managed to go all the way anyway and win it in 2025.
Daniher will be a massive loss for them, but there are signs that Logan Morris is set to be a star of the future and Lincoln McCarthy will be able to join Eric Hipwood as a marking target up forward to help cover the cracks. It is hard to see how they could be worse.
People talk a lot about hunger in football, and whatever you think of that (I personally don’t think it makes a difference) Brisbane will have minimum five starting players who missed out last year, and will have something to prove this season. Oscar McInerny - who won us all over with his selflessness on Grand Final day - will surely feel like he is owed one. Levi Ashcroft will be out with a point to prove to his brother.
In the last twenty five most teams that have won one have won two - Brisbane, Geelong and Richmond winning three - so there’s no reason Brisbane can’t do it all again.
IN:
Sam Day (PSD - Gold Coast)
Levi Ashcroft (Pick 5 - Father-Son), Sam Marshall (Pick 25 - Academy), Ty Gallop (Pick 42 - Academy)
OUT:
Harry Sharp (Trade - Melbourne), Jaxon Prior (DFA - Essendon)
Joe Daniher (Retired), Kalin Lane (Delisted), Jarryd Lyons (Retired), James Madden (Delisted), Carter Michael (Delisted)
Best case scenario: Sweet, sweet back-to-back glory.
Worst case scenario: The magic wears off and being the huned proves harder than being the hunter, seeing Brisbane drop to a middle six finish with no wins in September.
Nice work, Jack! Disagree with a few of your placements but they're all well-argued. And I admire the chutzpah of fitting it all into a single post!